<table><tr><th>From: </th><th>jeffrey E. &lt;jeevacation@gmail.com&gt;</th></tr><tr><td>Sent: </td><td>Friday, August 14, 2015 8:42 PM</td></tr><tr><td>To: </td><td>Richard Kahn</td></tr><tr><td>Subject: </td><td>Re: An example - Taiwan 2Q GDP -6.5%; exports fell 8.32%</td></tr></table>

Ok

On Friday, August 14, 2015, Richard Kahn <████████████████████████ wrote:<=r>

Shall I ask Daniel=for trade ideas on shorting Asian currencies. Are you thinking about puts =nd calls in a 0 cost trade or selling calls or buying puts outright. =br>

Please advise on thoughts and notional values.

=/div>
Thank you.

Sent from my iPhon=

On Aug 14, 2015, at 12:05 PM, jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> wrote:

## Monday

Forwarded mes=age

From: Barrett, Paul S

Date: Friday, August 14, 201= Subject: An example - Taiwan 2Q GDP -6.5%; exports fell 8.32% To: B=ad Wechsler

= : Barrett Team
, "Jeffrey Epstein ( <javascript:_e("%7B%7D",'cvml' :> jeevacation@gmail=com
<javascript:_e("%7B%7D",'cvml&=39;,'jeevacation@gmail.com');> )" <jeevacation@gmail.com
<javascript:_e("%7B%7D",'cvml','jee=acation@gmail.com');> >,="Rich Joslin
<javascript:_e("%7B%7D",'cvml
<javascript:_e("%7B%7D",'cvml

=rad

=

=hen we get the balance sheet and ISDA done, we will likely want to short s=me Asian currencies (unless they move much lower from here). See the Taiwan data below.

## Monday (cont.)

=u>

=aul

=u>

=u>

=u>

Taiwan came ou= with its preliminary Q2 GDP data last night and the numbers were weaker t=an
expected. (Q2 GDP @ -6.56% pace!)

<=>

CHART ONE:=A0 =C2 =A0 GDP Contracted at a -6.=6% pace in Q2. That was the
worst number in almost six years. <=span>

CHART TWO:=A0 =C2 =C2 Exports for Q2 declined at a -8.32% pace. Also the worst
number since the last recession.=/span>

</=>

<image002.jpg>=u>

=/p>

=/p>

Source: Bloomberg 14Aug2015=/span>

=span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-
s=rif";color:#5f5f5f">__________________________________ = __________________________________<=u>

=span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Paul Barrett | Managing Director | Global Investment Opportunities Group | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | J.P. Morgan Private Bank |=J.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A.
320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY=10022 |

## Monday (cont.)

NOT AN OFFICIAL CONFIRMATIO=: For informational purposes only.Q=A0 This report does not represent an official account of the holdings, bal=nces, or transactions made in your account and is being provided at your request. Please refer to your monthly account statement for =he official record of all of your account activities. For question, =lease call your J.P. Morgan representative.

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This email=is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditions includ=ng on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completenes= of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal enti=y disclaimers, available at http://www.=pmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email chttp://www.jpmorgan.com/pages/=isclosures/email> .

<image1.gif>

=sia Pacific Economic Research

________________________________________

Taiwan: 2Q GDP weakened no=ably, main drag coming from the export sector, especially tech

Taiwan’s 2Q15 real GDP growth slo=ed notably to 0.52%oya (compared to the advanced reading of 0.64%), following the
upwardly-rev=sed growth at 3.84%oya in 1Q (previously: 3.37%).

The Directorate Gene=al of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) estimates that, seasonally=adjusted, real GDP
contracted 6.56% q/q, saar in 2Q15, following the positive growth at =.3% q/q saar in 1Q.

Breakdown of 2Q GDP by expenditure highli=hts that the notable contraction in the economy (in %q/q saar terms) was mainly dragged by export sector weakn=ss (especially for tech products). On the domestic front, GDP expen=iture data showed decent growth in private consumption in 2Q, though GDP i=dustry data suggested that consumption-related

## Monday (cont.)

sectors, such as wholesale and retail t=ade, remained subdued. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth rebounded decent=y in 2Q, which may hint at some potential moderate recovery for the econom= going into 2H15.

## Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand

The significant weakness in Taiwan4b=99s 2Q GDP, with the most severe quarterly GDP contraction (in %q/q saar t=rms) since the worst moments of the global financial crisis, was mainly dragged by the export and manufacturing sectors, with the notable u=derperformance of the tech sector (tech IP fell significantly at 34.5% 3m/=m saar in June).

Looking ahead, on the external front, our=global team continues to expect stronger global growth in 2H15, which will=hopefully provide some support for moderate recovery in Taiwan's export and manufacturing sector. In this regards, it is w=th noting: (1) Taiwan's July exports improved moderately (up 3.2% =/m sa in real terms); (2) tech exports, following the significant weakness=in 2Q rebounded 7.7% m/m sa in July; (3) capital goods imports rose notably at 93.6% m/m sa and 13.2% m/m sa in July and Ju=e respectively, suggesting decent expansion in corporate capex, which in t=rn hints at some moderate recovery in export and manufacturing sectors in =oming months.

On the domestic front, it is worth noting=that the slowing in industrial activity through 2Q seemed to have graduall= fed into the labor market, with employment growth losing momentum lately (in % m/m sa terms, total employment stopped growing in Ju=e), which could restrain private consumption outlook going into 2H15.

Overall, our forecast for Taiwan'= full-year 2015 GDP growth now stands at 1.3%oya, assuming moderate recove=y in the sequential growth trend to average at about 3.0% q/q saar in 3Q and 4Q.

Meanwhile, regarding monetary policy, con=idering the notable weakness in latest macro data, the possibility of a po=ential policy rate cut, sometime during 2H15, seems to be on the rise. Besides, as the major source of recent macro weakness larg=ly originated from the external sector, managing currency competitiveness =ould be an important policy tool going ahead.

For further details of the 2Q GDP report,=looking at the major GDP expenditure components:

* =C2* Total exports of goods and services =ontracted notably by 16.5% q/q saar in 2Q, compared to the modest expansio= at 1.7% q/q saar in 10. (In particular, monthly trade data suggested the tech sector was the main drag on 2Q export weakness, as=tech exports contracted 27.0% 3m/3m saar in June.)

* =C2* Imports of goods and services expand=d moderately at 3.0% q/q saar in 2Q, following the contraction at 5.5% q/q=saar in 10 (reflecting the notable rebound in 2Q domestic fixed investment).

* =C2* On the domestic front, private consu=ption expenditure rose 3.0% q/q saar in 2Q following the solid gain at 4.=% q/q saar in 1O.

4

## Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand (cont.)

* =C2* Gross fixed capital formation reboun=ed rather notably by 26.8% q/q saar in 2Q, following the contraction at 13=1% q/q saar in 10.

Regarding GDP details by industry:

* =C2* Manufacturing production contracted =3.4% q/q saar in 2Q, following the moderate gain at 2.2% q/q saar in 10.

* =C2* With regard to domestic service sect=rs, wholesales and retail trade, which is closely related to private consu=ption expenditure, contracted 5.1% q/q saar in 2Q, following the decline at 3.4% q/q saar in 10.

* =C2* Real estate activity rose modestly a= 1.2% q/q saar in 2Q, following the modest gain at 0.5% q/q saar in 1Q.

* =C2" Finance and insurance services expan=ed significantly at 12.9% q/q saar in 2Q, adding to the gain at 17.6% q/q =aar in 10.

* =C2* In addition, construction activity c=ntracted 5.3% q/q saar in 2Q adding to the decline at 4.2% q/q saar in 1O=

Source: DGBAS

<image7.gif>
Source: DGBAS

<image5.gif>
Source: DGBAS

<image9.gif>
Source: DGBAS, I.P. Morgan

Source: DGBAS, MoEA, J.P.Morgan

<image2.gif>
Source: MoF, DGBAS, Markit, J.P.Morgan

<image4.gif>
Source: MoF, J.P.Morgan

<image6.gif>
Source: DGBAS, J.P.Morgan

## Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand (cont.)

Click h=re <https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-gpohsq7/lWVzR=ZPdCY/GPS-1793170-0.pdf> for the full Note and disclosures.

<=p>

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## Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand (cont.)

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?=A0 please note

may

The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to <javascript:_e=%7B%7DX-vmUjeevacation@gmail.com.);> , and destroy this communication and all copie= thereof,

## Watching for signs of 2H15 improvement=in external demand (cont.)

including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved
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<enewtotal10408.pdf>=

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ple=se note

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