<table><tr><th>From:</th><th>Barnaby Marsh ‹</th></tr><tr><td>Sent:</td><td>Thursday, February 19, 2015 2:34 AM</td></tr><tr><td>To:</td><td>Joichi Ito</td></tr><tr><td>Cc:</td><td>Jeffrey Epstein</td></tr><tr><td>Subject:</td><td>Re: "Genius" finding</td></tr></table>

Yes, exactly - this is how it is at Harvard too, but very soon people know who the top minds are, and which are impostors - word spreads, and those with the good minds get invited to lunches, talks, the american academy, etc. there must be some way to crack this...

On 2/18/15, 9:27 PM, "Joichi Ito" <██████████> wrote:

>I think the brute force way of getting the interesting 3attractors2 >la=s like George's to give us a list of the people who they think would >fit this model.

>

>The problem is, and Om working on this at MIT, most researchers and >pos= docs are sort of 3undocumented immigrants' that we don't normally >tr=ck

>

>- Joi

## >

> On Feb 18, 2015, at 9:23 PM, Barnaby Marsh <barnaby.marsh@yale.edu> wrote:
>>
>> On the right track- like the bayesian method. I think that the
>>environment matters a lot too- the people that we look for aggregate
>>in places like Cambridge, where they can be with others who they can
>>resonate with. My guess is that many times they might not have formal
>>positions, but are visitors to labs, research groups, etc. Is there
>>any way to get lists of such people???
>>
>> From: Joichi Ito <joichi@joichi.org>
>> Date: Saturday, February 14, 2015 at 8:10 AM
>> To: B Marsh <barnaby.marsh@yale.edu>, Jeffrey Epstein <jeffrey.epstein@yale.edu>
>> Subject: Fwd: "Genius" finding
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>> Begin forwarded message:
>>
>>> From: Scott Page <scott.page@yale.edu>
>>> Date: February 14, 2015 at 07:16:47 EST
>>> To: Joichi Ito <joichi@joichi.org>
>>> Subject: "Genius" finding
>>>

## > (cont.)

>>> Joi,

>>>> I've been thinking about your question of how to identify amazing >>>people.
>>>> Here are several thoughts that don't necessarily cohere.
>>>> I think your approach has to depend partly on the goal. The >>>algorithm I would construct to find the next great artist would >>>differ from one to find a teacher, mathematician, cancer researcher, >>>brain scientist, etc... If you're totally wide open as to subject >>>area, then it seems to me you want to cast a wide net.
>>>> I would be tempted to try the Bayesian Truth Serum and ask >>>something like Pick a really smart friend, who would that person say >>>should win a genius award.
>>>> Rather than try to identify people, you might instead seek out >>>papers/projects/programs/ideas and then identify the person after the >>>fact.
>>>> You might want to consider asking people for the "coolest thing they >>>know that's NOT on the web (yet)
>>>> So much filtering and assessment already goes on that most programs >>>free ride on that -- giving award to people who have already won >>>awards. This suggests that one place to look is at the "losers" - >>>contact MacArthur, NIH, NSF, DARPA, GOOGLE, and ask who do you regret >>>not funding?
>>>> Once you've got a long list of possibilities you have many options. >>>Here are some you may not have considered
>>>> You could also pay people on mechanical turk to write up little >>>blurbs on each one and then seed them on Facebook, Twitter, etc.. and >>>then only look at the ones that get retweeted.
>>>> You could use Matt Salganik's pairwise comparison website.
>>>> hope this helps. Happy to think more.
>>>> scotte
>>>> --
>>>> Scott E Page
>>>> University of Michigan-Ann Arbor
>>>> Santa Fe Institute
>

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