<table><tr><th>From:</th><th>Daniel Sabba &lt;</th></tr><tr><td>Sent:</td><td>Thursday, January 15, 2015 3:41 AM</td></tr><tr><td>To:</td><td>Jeffrey Epstein</td></tr><tr><td>Cc:</td><td>Vahe Stepanian</td></tr><tr><td>Subject:</td><td>quick update - crude vol + Brazil CDS</td></tr></table>

Classification: Public

Jeffrey — see cr=de oil trading commentary below.

Implied vols went = down and the index is slightly up.

Mar15 WTI vol (which e=pires in Feb15) is down to 47.80%. More info below.

Brazil Sy CDS closed a= 197/201. When you entered the trade it was 201/205. The 4bps tightening w=th a spread DVO1 of approximately 4.5k should lead to approximately -18k P=L on the position.

BRL appreciated 1.02% =oday, so being short BRL on an NDF for same notional should have yielded a=out -100k PnL.

Stavros Valavanis Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 4:28 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 14 Jan

Classification: Public

OIL

&nbs=;

A crazy day in oil. WTI failed to break 45$ and we r=llied 8.7% after that and tested 49$! The rally started as NY walked in, h=wever bearish stats interrupted it. Nevertheless, news that North Dakota N=vember production was flat again caused some questions, as now the 2m growth has also been flat. Last year&=8217;s respective 2month growth was 45kbd...Some are blaming the weath=r, which is definitely a factor. However, 1 interesting thing is tha= the state said that it needs 130 rigs to maintain production at current levels; it has 152 currently operating (this number =as dropped from 180) and that it foresees only 120 by Q3. So N Dakota coul= start DROPPING mom by late Q2. In conjunction with the relentless gasolin= rally due to large planned and unplanned TARs for this time of year as well as the last day of the GSCI i=dex rebalance (although this is 4k wti/day and 8k bre per day-hardly enoug= I'd say to explain the 400K+ volume in both prompt crude future=) caused to a massive short covering. WTI spreads and BRE spreads were also extremely bid term-what as these happens have been there consens=s is critical...On trades stats, over they the =ere past bearish couple of as months...I we built 5.4M think bbls oil will overall try to off test=50$ the back in of the a sizeable short

rebound in imports and drop in runs. P2 built 2.3M,=Cush built 1.8M, and P3 built 900k. Products also built, although consider=bly less than the past few weeks...

OIL VOLS

Vols were offered all daya, even before the large sp=ke. We saw interest in selling Cal15 vols across the board, and there were=also big sellers of call6 vol in the market. As it still seems worth being=long gamma, the back is selling off more than the front. H5/Z5 WTI is above 13 vols!!! There has been a large =bsence of any type of producer business so far this year as far as I can t=II, and January is typically one of the busiest producer hedging months:11=30;i think that vol selling will continue, especially if we break 50$ to the upside in the prompt...</=>

<table><tr><th>&amp;=bsp;</th><th></th><th>&amp;nbs=;</th><th>=nbsp;</th><th>WTI (/change)</th><th>&amp;=bsp;</th><th>&amp;nb=p; BRE (/change)=/span&gt;</th></tr><tr><td>H15</td><td>&amp;nbs=;</td><td>=nbsp;</td><td>47.80%</td><td>-0.90%</td><td>&amp;=bsp;</td><td>45.10%&amp;n=sp; -2.00%</td></tr><tr><td>M15</td><td>&amp;nbs=;</td><td>=nbsp;</td><td>42.10%</td><td>-1.50%</td><td>=nbsp;</td><td>38.60%&amp;n=sp; -1.70%</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7">Z15 &amp;=bsp; &amp;nbs=; 34.15% -2.00% = &amp;=bsp; 32.45% -1.85%</td></tr><tr><td>Z16</td><td>&amp;nbs=;</td><td>8erbsp;</td><td>27.00%</td><td>-1.85%</td><td>&amp;nbs=;</td><td>28.75% -2.00%</td></tr></table>

Base Metals

<table><tr><th>3m Ivls</th><th colspan="3">= dod=change</th><th>support</th><th>&amp;nbs=;</th><th>resistance</th></tr><tr><td>Al $1774</td><td></td><td>&amp;nb=p;</td><td>-$17.5</td><td>&amp;n=sp;</td><td>$1770</td><td>&amp;n=sp; $1800</td></tr><tr><td>Cu $5548</td><td></td><td>&amp;nb=p;</td><td>-$312</td><td>&amp;n=sp;</td><td>$5500</td><td>&amp;=bsp; $5600</td></tr><tr><td>Zn $2035</td><td></td><td>&amp;nb=p;</td><td>-$46</td><td>&amp;nb=p;</td><td>$2030</td><td>&amp;nb=p; $2125</td></tr><tr><td>Ni $14,310</td><td></td><td>&amp;=bsp;</td><td>-$340</td><td>&amp;=bsp;</td><td>$14,000</td><td>=14,600</td></tr><tr><td>Pb $1768</td><td></td><td>&amp;nb=p;</td><td>-$61.5</td><td>&amp;n=sp;</td><td>$1750</td><td>&amp;=bsp; $1790</td></tr></table>

The base complex tanked in Asian trading as stop losses were =it on a downward revision in global growth forecasts by the World Ba=k from 3.4% to 3% due to the underperformance of the Eurozone, Japan and some major emerging markets despite lower oil prices. The =CJ commenting that the ECB's plans on buying government bond is legal did =ittle to stem the flow. Copper led the way, hitting 5 year lows driven by =he breaking of the $5800 mark where there were a lot of puts sold with potentially another big slug of option =elling at $5500 to come and concerns about economic

growth in China is hav=ng an impact on predicted demand in the region. However there are co=cerns that fundamentally ther could be a bullish story lurking. Cuts in copper mine output for geologica= and technical reasons such as the 150kMT cut at Escondida and the 100 KMT=cut at Kennecott are rasing questions as to whether the global surplus exp=cted in 2015 with Macquarie expecting the market to be balanced. The late arrival of the rainy season in Zambia =nd Democratic Republic of Congo may have a significant impact on open pit =ining in both regions, cutting supplies in coming months. There also remai=s one last dominant holder of LME stocks with over half of current stocks who could reap a handsome reward i= they hold their position, given that the market is $80 backwardated, indi=ating a tight market. Aluminium remained relatively firm but still f=llowed the complex down. Around 500 kMT of Chinese smelting capacity is likely to close in coming months as do=estic prices drop below the cost of production. China expects to add=4.5 mMT of new capacity in 2015 but up to 2.5 mMT of existing capacity is =t risk and could significantly offset this figure. Nickel, Zinc and Lead prices recovered strongly in the =fternoon but came off towards the close.

Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are up 21.62% to 56 kMT.=LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are flat at 1839.8 kMT. Shanghai Copper on=warrant stocks are up 23.08% to 48.4 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 2.4% to 170.9 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 2.55% to 317.8=kMT.

Copper Vols are up 5.28%, Ali Vols are down 0.46%, Nickel Vol= up 6.28%, Lead Vols are up 2.53% Zinc Vols are up 1.78%

Upcoming Data

14/1- EC Industrial Production SA MoM-Sury 0%, Actual 0.2%, Prio= 0.1%, Revised 0.3%

14/1- US MBA Mortgage Applications- Actual 49.1%, Prior 11.1%

14/1- US Retail Sales Advance MoM- Actual -0/1%, Actual -0.9•A, P=ior 0.7%, Revised 0.4%

14/1- China Money Supply YoY-Actual 12.5%, Prior 12.3%

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