<table><tr><th>From:</th><th>Lawrence H. Summers</th></tr><tr><td>Sent:</td><td>Tuesday, November 10, 2015 3:30 PM</td></tr><tr><td>To:</td><td>Jeffrey Epstein</td></tr><tr><td>Cc:</td><td>Ihsoffice</td></tr><tr><td>Subject:</td><td>Fwd: Kazakhstan Macro Flash: A collapse in tenge REER to improve competitiveness -
1 page(s)</td></tr></table>

They r a mess

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Begin forwarded message:

From: *Citi CEEMEA Economics <ceemea.economics@investmentresearch.citi.=om <mailto:ceemea.econo=ics@investmentresearch.citi.com> >

Date: November 10, 2015 at 10:08:32 AM EST

To: cmailto > Subject: Kazakhstan Macro Flash: A collapse in tenge REER to impr=ve competitiveness - 1 page(s)

Reply-To: *Citi CEEMEA Economics <ceemea.economics@investmentresearch.citi.c=m
<mailto:ceemea.econom=cs@investmentresearch.citi.com>>

A=collapse in tenge REER signals improved competitiveness

Kazakhstan Macro Flash

• Sep REER data reveals a collapse in tenge value against the currencies =f trading partners. After falling by 5.5% in Aug, tenge's real effec=ive exchange rate (REER) dropped by 20.3% in Sep, hitting the levels seen =either at the depths of 2008-2009 crisis nor after Feb 2014 devaluationn

• As a result, REER is now signific=ntly below its long-term average, signaling a boost to Kazakhstan's =xternal competitiveness.

• Current REER levels support our view that no further significant c=rrency weakening is needed to bring the exchange rate in line with fundame=tals. Even so, the lack of market confidence in tenge means that overshoot=ng is still possible before the currency finds its equilibrium value.

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