From: ████████ <████████████████>
Sent: Wednesday, August 24, 2016 5:11 PM
To: Jeffrey Epstein
Subject: Re:

By guessing. It seems to be a general learning problem to me; we assume =n initial causal model and update approximating a Bayesian model based =n observation.

For instance, if I want to find out if my opponent is going to defect, I =an make a model of my opponent, where I weight the influence of

• their expected current and future interaction reward with me

- their general principled inertia (people tend to behave consistently, =artially because it makes them generally predictable, and partially =ecause they don't want to consider everything from first principles)

- how much they see me as an end-goal (like a parent sees their =hildren, or a teacher their pupils)

- how much reputation gain they expect from actual and imagined 3rd =arty observation

- how much "virtual" reputation gain/loss they get from defecting from =heir own values.

If one wanted to make a PED style model of this, it is probably too =omplex and perhaps it makes sense to simplify it to a single reputation =actor. But I guess that in actual interactions, this is what we =mplicitly consider.

> On Aug 24, 2016, at 12:58, jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> wrote:

>

> so how does one determine the matrix without knowing the internal =tate of the player.

>

> On Wed, Aug 24, 2016 at 12:57 PM, > =rote:

> If the hypothetical observer is expected to dole out =ewards/punishments as result of the player's actions, the player will =dd the expected rewards to the payoff.

> Reputation can be translated into expectation of future reward, based =n a cooperation/defection function of other players.

>

> On Aug 24, 2016, at 12:52, jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> wrote:

>>

» in a two player game what if one player BELIVES there is an =bserver but there is not. the payoff matrix should change.?

>

>

>

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