<table><tr><th>From:</th><th>Daniel Sabba &lt;change&gt;&lt;s&gt;&lt;daniel.sabba@db.com&gt;&lt;/s&gt;&lt;/change&gt;</th></tr><tr><td>Sent:</td><td>Friday, February 13, 2015 12:07 AM</td></tr><tr><td>To:</td><td>'jeevacation@gmail.com'</td></tr><tr><td>Cc:</td><td>Vahe Stepanian; Jay Lipman</td></tr><tr><td>Subject:</td><td>Fw: Some thoughts from my trip to Germany y'day and a trade idea</td></tr></table>

Classification: Public

From: Nick Lawson Sent: Wednesday, February 11, 2015 01:28 PM Subject: Some thoughts from my trip to Germany y'day and a trade idea

I saw the biggest multi-asset managers in Frankfurt yday with Ozan my co-head of MAC who incidentally is seeing more clients in Munich today. On the plane home I jotted down some feedback as there seemed to be an element of consensus and also from it a potential trade idea.

There is no doubt, that for the people we met, that the events in the Ukraine weigh heavier that Greece. There was a feeling that Greece could be contained and although there would be more 'to-ing and fro-ing' as regards negotiations it was something that could be ultimately resolved without Grexit. What worried German managers more was the Ukraine. It is evident in Germany the country is behind Merkel but are skeptical over what she can achieve in Minsk.

Oil was not an issue and it was felt contango would persist until the OPEC commentary on production in July. Other issues were the low availability of broker dealer liquidity across all asset classes was discussed.

Most expected a Fed hike in the summer and had a number circa 3% for 10yr UST and no one felt any need to keep pushing the UST or the US HY trade. The MSFT offering was discussed and people understood that some pension funds had to take this deal but all felt 153bps over ignored the duration risk.

If the US recovery keeps improving and rates rise reversing the hunt for yield then loses from a stronger USD, margin pressure and wage price rises mean that the trade will be Europe over US for the rest of 2015.

So what to own in Europe? There was little for owning bond-like proxies in equity. As the move in Syr UST showed on Friday on a strong payroll number that if bond yields rise then things that look and smell like bonds will also see their yields rise. Case in point the 4% fall in S&P Utilities on Friday.

Everyone felt if a lid is put on Greece or the Ukraine then they want to own blue chip Eurozone cyclicals with a decent
yield and USD earnings. As was pointed out if there was a war in the Ukraine and a Grexit these same stocks would fall
10-15% so there was patience to this trade but all meetings distilled down to this subgroup.

On my return to London I had our Synthetic research team this morning screen for the following criteria.....

European Listed names with over 30% of sales to US, a market Cap over $10bn and a dividend yield f/c for this year over 2%. We also removed highly defensive names, oils and banks from the list to reach a more cyclical and non-bank exposure. The final list is below and the blended average yield of the thirteen names is 3.1%. We can turn this into a basket if you so wish. Nick 4>

Ticker

Name

Sector

Industry

Country

Market Cap (mn, USD)

Div Yield

AIR FP Equity

AIRBUS GROUP NV

Industrials

Aerospace & Defense

FRANCE

44154

2.3

MAERSKB DC Equity

AP MOELLER-MAERSK A/S-B

Industrials

Marine

DENMARK

42921

2.9

CCL LN Equity

CARNIVAL PLC

Consumer Discretionary

Hotels Restaurants & Leisure

UK

33990

2.5

WPP LN Equity

WPP PLC

Consumer Discretionary

Media

BRITAIN

29313

2.6

CPG LN Equity

COMPASS GROUP PLC

Consumer Discretionary

Hotels Restaurants & Leisure

BRITAIN

29050

2.5

SAF FP Equity
SAFRAN SA
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense
FRANCE
28555
2.0
EXPN LN Equity
EXPERIAN PLC
Industrials
Professional Services
IRELAND
17922
2.2
TEN IM Equity
TENARIS SA
Energy
Energy Equipment & Services
LUXEMBOURG
17628
2.9
PSON LN Equity
PEARSON PLC
Consumer Discretionary
Media
BRITAIN

4

<table><tr><th>17322</th></tr><tr><td>3.7</td></tr><tr><td>AGN NA Equity</td></tr><tr><td>AEGON NV</td></tr><tr><td>Financials</td></tr><tr><td>Insurance</td></tr><tr><td>NETHERLANDS</td></tr><tr><td>15823</td></tr><tr><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td>SGSN VX Equity</td></tr><tr><td>SGS SA-REG</td></tr><tr><td>Industrials</td></tr><tr><td>Professional Services</td></tr><tr><td>SWITZERLAND</td></tr><tr><td>15601</td></tr><tr><td>3.8</td></tr><tr><td>SW FP Equity</td></tr><tr><td>SODEXO</td></tr><tr><td>Consumer Discretionary</td></tr><tr><td>Hotels Restaurants &amp; Leisure</td></tr><tr><td>FRANCE</td></tr><tr><td>15585</td></tr><tr><td>2.4</td></tr><tr><td>RTL LX Equity</td></tr><tr><td>RTL GROUP</td></tr><tr><td>Consumer Discretionary</td></tr></table>

Media

LUXEMBOURG

14988

6.5

Nick Lawson
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank AG London

Office : +44 20 7545 8634
Mobile : +44 77 8000 7242

<http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=guest_home_login> <https://twitter.com/#!/lawse>

Assistant
Joanne Higgins
Office : +44 20 7545 8825

CIB Global Markets
Winchester House
1 Great Winchester Street
London
EC2N 2DB

ALMT <http://www.almt.org/>

This marketing communication was prepared by a Sales or Trading function within the Deutsche Bank ("DB") group. It is confidential and is for distribution to investment professionals only. Onward distribution is not allowed without the express consent of DB. It is not investment research, and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of such. Any opinion expressed herein may differ from the opinions of other DB departments including the Research Department - see https://gm.db.com <https://gm.db.com> This marketing communication is not a recommendation or offer to enter into any transaction unless otherwise stated. Any terms and conditions herein are indicative and subject to change and/or negotiation between us, unless the terms are expressed as final. Where a term sheet, prospectus or other document is attached hereto, please refer to the full terms referenced therein, including any disclaimer and warning. For general information regarding the nature and risks of any proposed transaction and types of financial instruments please go to www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures <http://www.globalmarkets.db.com/riskdisclosures> .

Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch ("DBL") trades as principal. It may make a market or trade in instruments economically related to securities, derivatives or other underlying assets mentioned herein, and/or have investment banking or other relationships with issuers of those securities or other assets. DBL actively manages various risks, and on occasion may deal in securities or assets mentioned herein or in related instruments during the period between your receipt of this email and the award of any order. Whilst DBL's trading or hedging activities are not intended to have any

significant impact upon prices, our dealings could affect the prices you pay or receive for transactions in related securities.

Deutsche Bank AG is authorised as a Credit Institution under German Law by the Bundesanstalt fiir Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht and regulated for the conduct of its UK investment business by the Financial Services Authority.

This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) please notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strictly forbidden.

## Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm

Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm <http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm> for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures.

This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden.

Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such.