This paper by David S. Spiegel and Edwin L. Turner explores the probability of abiogenesis (the origin of life) using a Bayesian statistical framework. It examines the early emergence of life on Earth as evidence for the likelihood of life elsewhere in the universe. The authors argue that the choice of Bayesian prior significantly influences the posterior probability of abiogenesis. They conclude that while early life on Earth suggests life might be common, the evidence is inconclusive and consistent with a low probability of abiogenesis. The paper discusses the implications of finding independent life elsewhere, which would strengthen the case for life being common.
documents/EFTA01071746.pdf
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