The document discusses the outlook for US fixed income, focusing on three main themes: the terminal Funds rate, term premium, and the Federal Reserve's role in rate normalization. It highlights the 5y5y rate as a proxy for the terminal rate and notes that the market is pricing a terminal Funds rate around 2.5%. The document also reviews 2014 GDP growth, which remained stable at a sub-4% nominal pace, and discusses the implications for productivity and labor market sustainability.
doj/DataSet10/EFTA01385921.pdf
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