The document discusses the relationship between the 10s30s Treasury yield curve and inflation, suggesting that a bullish flattening of the curve may indicate a higher probability of declining inflation. Historical data from September 1994 to present is analyzed, showing a 75% probability of CPI decline following a month-end bull flattening event. The document also notes potential external factors affecting inflation, such as capital inflows from Europe and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, it reviews the performance of US bond fund managers in early 2015, highlighting their fluctuating excess returns relative to the benchmark.
doj/DataSet10/EFTA01385926.pdf
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