The document discusses the vulnerability of the British pound (sterling) due to the UK's twin deficits and expensive valuation. It highlights the impact of a robust recovery and high interest rates on the UK's current account deficit since 2011. The document suggests that without rate support, sterling could face a sharp correction due to slowing foreign capital inflows. It recommends shorting GBP/USD and provides forecasts for the currency pair for end-2016 and end-2017. The document includes a table comparing budget forecasts from different periods and discusses global currency valuations.
documents/vol00010-efta01359484-pdf.pdf
{"key_people":["George Saravelos"],"document_type":"tabular","key_locations":["UK"],"document_subtype":"financial analysis","reference_numbers":["DB-SDNY-0047567","SDNY_GM_00193751","EFTA01359484"]}