This report assesses the sensitivities associated with the direct effects of capital outflows on Russia's growth and exchange rate, excluding the effects of sanctions, interest rate changes, and other factors. It suggests that while sanctions may have a limited direct effect, they could increase capital outflows. Interest rate changes are expected to have a temporary and limited impact unless political uncertainty persists. The report also notes the risk to Russia's sovereign credit rating as a potential factor affecting the country's economic outlook in 2014-2015.
doj/DataSet10/EFTA01453231.pdf
{"title":"Special Report: Russia: macro implications of increased geopolitical risk","document_date":"2014-03-07","document_type":"other","key_locations":["Russia"],"document_subtype":"report","key_organizations":["Deutsche Bank AG","Moody's"],"reference_numbers":["DB-SDNY-0110738","SDNY_GM_00256922","EFTA01453231"]}