The document discusses potential real returns for USD and EUR high yield (HY) bonds, property, and commodities over the next decade, assuming mean reversion. It highlights that USD HY returns are expected to remain below long-term averages, with EUR HY expected to have negative real returns. Property prices are predicted to fall, and commodities like oil and gold are expected to have poor returns. The methodology for mean reversion and inflation assumptions is also outlined.
doj/DataSet10/EFTA01384483.pdf
{"title":"Long-Term Asset Return Study: The Next Financial Crisis","key_people":["Robert Shiller"],"document_date":"2017-09-18","document_type":"financial","key_organizations":["Deutsche Bank"],"reference_numbers":["DB-SDNY-0084718","SDNY_GM_00230902","EFTA01384483"]}